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Jinju Citizen vs Geoje Citizen — K4 League 2026

Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
Preview
07:00
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
10/3/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 23
50%
Jinju Citizen
model favours
50%23%27%
1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jinju Citizen50%
×Draw23%
Geoje Citizen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinju Citizen
1.78
Geoje Citizen
1.26

Jinju Citizen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Jinju Citizen
2.44
Geoje Citizen
1.63

allows per match

Jinju Citizen
0.89
Geoje Citizen
1.13

finishing

Jinju Citizen+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinju Citizen ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jinju Citizen or draw
73%
Jinju Citizen or Geoje Citizen
77%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
50%

Winning margin

Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
27%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
83%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
53%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
26%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
72%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
36%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
65%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinju Citizen at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinju Citizen attack 2.44 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jinju Citizen scores more
50%
level
23%
Geoje Citizen scores more
27%

Jinju Citizen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Citizen
WDWWW
Citizen
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jinju Citizen face Geoje Citizen (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Jinju Citizen hosting Geoje Citizen. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.