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Geoje Citizen vs Jinju Citizen — K4 League 2026

Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
FT
2 – 2
Jinju Citizen
Jinju Citizen
5/10/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Geoje Citizen25%
×Draw20%
Jinju Citizen55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geoje Citizen
1.48
Jinju Citizen
2.27

Jinju Citizen creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Geoje Citizen
2.29
Jinju Citizen
2.67

allows per match

Geoje Citizen
1.86
Jinju Citizen
0.67

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par
Jinju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Jinju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw
45%
Geoje Citizen or Jinju Citizen
80%
Draw or Jinju Citizen
75%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
11%
Jinju Citizen wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
77%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
43%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
19%
Jinju Citizen 1+ goals
90%
Jinju Citizen 2+ goals
66%
Jinju Citizen 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
31%
Jinju Citizen (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Jinju Citizen away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.29 + Jinju Citizen defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Jinju Citizen attack 2.67 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more
25%
level
20%
Jinju Citizen scores more
55%

Jinju Citizen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jinju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Geoje Citizen 2–2 Jinju Citizen

Geoje Citizen and Jinju Citizen drew 2-2 in K4 League on May 10, 2026.