Jindřichův Hradec 2–1 Vysočina Jihlava U19

Jindřichův Hradec

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vysočina Jihlava U19

4/1/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 20Vladivostocká UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec63%

×Draw19%

Vysočina Jihlava U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jindřichův HradecExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.16

Jindřichův Hradec

2.35

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.16

Jindřichův Hradec creates 103% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 60 away

2.36

creates per match

1.15

1.17

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec

2.36

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.15

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec

1.17

Vysočina Jihlava U19

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Vysočina Jihlava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw

82%

Jindřichův Hradec or Vysočina Jihlava U19

81%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava U19

37%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

41%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

90%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

68%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

41%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals

69%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals

32%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

78%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Vysočina Jihlava U19 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.35

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.15 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

63%

level

19%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more

18%

Jindřichův Hradec at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff