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Jindřichův Hradec vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
2 – 1
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
8/8/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 2Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec54%
×Draw20%
Tatran Sedlčany26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.42
Tatran Sedlčany
1.66

Jindřichův Hradec creates 46% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 28 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
74%
Jindřichův Hradec or Tatran Sedlčany
80%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
46%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
34%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
91%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
69%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
43%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
81%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
49%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
67%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 2.42

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
54%
level
20%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
26%

Jindřichův Hradec at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Tatran Sedlčany

Jindřichův Hradec beat Tatran Sedlčany 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.