Jindřichův Hradec vs Slovácko U19

Jindřichův Hradec

CANC

11:00

Slovácko U19

4/3/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 10Stadion Na Chvalech - Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec58%

×Draw21%

Slovácko U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jindřichův HradecExpected goals in this matchSlovácko U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.23

Jindřichův Hradec

2.13

Slovácko U19

1.23

Jindřichův Hradec creates 73% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 79 away

2.36

creates per match

1.30

1.17

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec

2.36

Slovácko U19

1.30

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec

1.17

Slovácko U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Slovácko U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Slovácko U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw

78%

Jindřichův Hradec or Slovácko U19

79%

Draw or Slovácko U19

42%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

35%

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

88%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

63%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

35%

Slovácko U19 1+ goals

71%

Slovácko U19 2+ goals

35%

Slovácko U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

73%

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Slovácko U19 away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.13

Slovácko U19 attack 1.30 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

58%

level

21%

Slovácko U19 scores more

22%

Jindřichův Hradec at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff