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Jindřichův Hradec vs Příbram U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
10 – 0
Příbram U19
Příbram U19
8/3/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 2Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec80%
×Draw12%
Příbram U198%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
3.30
Příbram U19
1.01

Jindřichův Hradec creates 227% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 33 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.36
Příbram U19
0.85

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.17
Příbram U19
4.24

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Příbram U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
92%
Jindřichův Hradec or Příbram U19
88%
Draw or Příbram U19
20%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
62%
Příbram U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
96%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
83%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
62%
Příbram U19 1+ goals
64%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
27%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
91%
Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.30

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
80%
level
12%
Příbram U19 scores more
8%

Jindřichův Hradec at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Jindřichův Hradec 10–0 Příbram U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat Příbram U19 10-0 in 1. Liga U19 on August 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.