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Jindřichův Hradec vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
PST
15:00
Přeštice
Přeštice
5/10/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 25Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec15%
×Draw17%
Přeštice68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.16
Přeštice
2.63

Přeštice creates 127% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 23 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
32%
Jindřichův Hradec or Přeštice
83%
Draw or Přeštice
85%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
5%
Přeštice wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
69%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
32%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
11%
Přeštice 1+ goals
93%
Přeštice 2+ goals
73%
Přeštice 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
18%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
15%
level
17%
Přeštice scores more
68%

Přeštice at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jindřichův Hradec host Přeštice

May 10, 2020: Jindřichův Hradec take on Přeštice in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jindřichův Hradec host Přeštice at Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.