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Jindřichův Hradec vs Petřín Plzeň — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
2 – 1
Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
8/31/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 4Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec28%
×Draw21%
Petřín Plzeň51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.56
Petřín Plzeň
2.13

Petřín Plzeň creates 37% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 55 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Petřín Plzeň
2.05

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Petřín Plzeň
1.67

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Petřín Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
49%
Jindřichův Hradec or Petřín Plzeň
79%
Draw or Petřín Plzeň
72%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
13%
Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
79%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
46%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
21%
Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
88%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
63%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
36%
Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Petřín Plzeň away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.05 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
28%
level
21%
Petřín Plzeň scores more
51%

Petřín Plzeň at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Petřín Plzeň

Jindřichův Hradec beat Petřín Plzeň 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec).