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Jindřichův Hradec vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
0 – 5
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
10/19/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 11Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec41%
×Draw22%
Otava Katovice37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.88
Otava Katovice
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 56 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
63%
Jindřichův Hradec or Otava Katovice
78%
Draw or Otava Katovice
59%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
22%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
85%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
56%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
29%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
83%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
53%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
53%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.88

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
41%
level
22%
Otava Katovice scores more
37%

Jindřichův Hradec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jindřichův Hradec 0 – 5 Otava Katovice

Otava Katovice beat Jindřichův Hradec 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec).