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Jindřichův Hradec vs Opava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Opava U19
Opava U19
8/17/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 2Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec67%
×Draw18%
Opava U1915%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.38
Opava U19
1.02

Jindřichův Hradec creates 133% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 33 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.36
Opava U19
0.88

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.17
Opava U19
2.39

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Opava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Opava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
85%
Jindřichův Hradec or Opava U19
82%
Draw or Opava U19
33%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
45%
Opava U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
91%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
68%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
42%
Opava U19 1+ goals
64%
Opava U19 2+ goals
27%
Opava U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
82%
Opava U19 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Opava U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Opava U19 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.38

Opava U19 attack 0.88 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
67%
level
18%
Opava U19 scores more
15%

Jindřichův Hradec at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Jindřichův Hradec 2–1 Opava U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat Opava U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.