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Jindřichův Hradec vs Meteor Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Meteor Praha U19
Meteor Praha U19
3/12/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 16Stadion Na Chvalech - Hřiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec72%
×Draw16%
Meteor Praha U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.65
Meteor Praha U19
1.00

Jindřichův Hradec creates 165% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 18 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.36
Meteor Praha U19
0.83

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.17
Meteor Praha U19
2.94

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Meteor Praha U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
88%
Jindřichův Hradec or Meteor Praha U19
84%
Draw or Meteor Praha U19
28%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
50%
Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
93%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
74%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
48%
Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals
63%
Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals
26%
Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
86%
Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Meteor Praha U19 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.65

Meteor Praha U19 attack 0.83 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
72%
level
16%
Meteor Praha U19 scores more
12%

Jindřichův Hradec at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Meteor Praha U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat Meteor Praha U19 4-1 in 1. Liga U19 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech - Hřiště in Praha.