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Jindřichův Hradec vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
PST
14:30
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
4/5/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 20Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec48%
×Draw21%
Hvězda Cheb31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.12
Hvězda Cheb
1.67

Jindřichův Hradec creates 27% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 28 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Hvězda Cheb
1.14

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Hvězda Cheb
2.79

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
69%
Jindřichův Hradec or Hvězda Cheb
79%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
52%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
28%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
88%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
62%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
35%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
81%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
50%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
61%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Hvězda Cheb defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.12

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.14 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
48%
level
21%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
31%

Jindřichův Hradec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jindřichův Hradec face Hvězda Cheb (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Jindřichův Hradec hosting Hvězda Cheb. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jindřichův Hradec host Hvězda Cheb at Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.