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Hvězda Cheb vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
FT
0 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
8/28/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 5Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Hvězda Cheb50%
×Draw22%
Jindřichův Hradec28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvězda Cheb
2.00
Jindřichův Hradec
1.44

Hvězda Cheb creates 39% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.50
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.75
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw
72%
Hvězda Cheb or Jindřichův Hradec
78%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
50%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
29%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
86%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
59%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
32%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
76%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
42%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
64%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.50 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more
50%
level
22%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
28%

Hvězda Cheb at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hvězda Cheb vs Jindřichův Hradec

Jindřichův Hradec beat Hvězda Cheb 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiva in Cheb.