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Jindřichův Hradec vs Frýdek-Místek U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
S. Pikolon 58'
J. Lacko 45'
K. Belzik 40'
11/10/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 15Vladivostocká UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec71%
×Draw16%
Frýdek-Místek U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.62
Frýdek-Místek U19
1.02

Jindřichův Hradec creates 157% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.36
Frýdek-Místek U19
0.87

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.17
Frýdek-Místek U19
2.87

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
87%
Jindřichův Hradec or Frýdek-Místek U19
84%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19
29%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
49%
Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
93%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
73%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
48%
Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
64%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
27%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
85%
Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.62

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
71%
level
16%
Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
13%

Jindřichův Hradec at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
K. Belzik
45'
J. Lacko
58'
S. Pikolon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Frýdek-Místek U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat Frýdek-Místek U19 3-0 in 1. Liga U19 on November 10, 2023.

Goals: K. Belzik (40'), J. Lacko (45'), S. Pikolon (58').

The match was played at Vladivostocká UMT in Praha.