Jindřichův Hradec 0–1 Dukla Praha U19

Jindřichův Hradec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dukla Praha U19

10/7/2023

1. Liga U19 · Round 10Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec51%

×Draw22%

Dukla Praha U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jindřichův HradecExpected goals in this matchDukla Praha U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.40

Jindřichův Hradec

2.00

Dukla Praha U19

1.40

Jindřichův Hradec creates 43% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 60 away

2.36

creates per match

1.62

1.17

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec

2.36

Dukla Praha U19

1.62

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec

1.17

Dukla Praha U19

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Dukla Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Dukla Praha U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw

73%

Jindřichův Hradec or Dukla Praha U19

78%

Draw or Dukla Praha U19

49%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

30%

Dukla Praha U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

86%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

59%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

32%

Dukla Praha U19 1+ goals

75%

Dukla Praha U19 2+ goals

41%

Dukla Praha U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

66%

Dukla Praha U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Dukla Praha U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.62 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

51%

level

22%

Dukla Praha U19 scores more

27%

Jindřichův Hradec at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff