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Jindřichův Hradec vs Doubravka — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Doubravka
Doubravka
4/6/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 21Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec36%
×Draw23%
Doubravka41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.60
Doubravka
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 84 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Doubravka
1.27

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Doubravka
1.75

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Doubravka+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Doubravka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
59%
Jindřichův Hradec or Doubravka
77%
Draw or Doubravka
64%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
17%
Doubravka wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
80%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
47%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
22%
Doubravka 1+ goals
82%
Doubravka 2+ goals
52%
Doubravka 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
46%
Doubravka (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Doubravka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Doubravka defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Doubravka attack 1.27 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
36%
level
23%
Doubravka scores more
41%

Doubravka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Doubravka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Doubravka

Jindřichův Hradec beat Doubravka 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.