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Jindřichův Hradec vs České Budějovice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
9/28/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 8Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec55%
×Draw20%
České Budějovice U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
2.25
České Budějovice U19
1.47

Jindřichův Hradec creates 53% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 80 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.36
České Budějovice U19
1.77

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.17
České Budějovice U19
2.15

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

České Budějovice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
75%
Jindřichův Hradec or České Budějovice U19
80%
Draw or České Budějovice U19
45%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
34%
České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
89%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
65%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
39%
České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
77%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
43%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
69%
České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.25

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
55%
level
20%
České Budějovice U19 scores more
25%

Jindřichův Hradec at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Jindřichův Hradec 1–0 České Budějovice U19

Jindřichův Hradec beat České Budějovice U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Chvalech in Praha.