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Jindřichův Hradec vs Baník Sokolov — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Baník Sokolov
Baník Sokolov
5/4/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 25Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec27%
×Draw21%
Baník Sokolov52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.46
Baník Sokolov
2.10

Baník Sokolov creates 44% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Baník Sokolov
2.00

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Baník Sokolov
1.47

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Baník Sokolov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Baník Sokolov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
48%
Jindřichův Hradec or Baník Sokolov
79%
Draw or Baník Sokolov
73%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
12%
Baník Sokolov wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
77%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
43%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
18%
Baník Sokolov 1+ goals
88%
Baník Sokolov 2+ goals
62%
Baník Sokolov 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
34%
Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Baník Sokolov away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Baník Sokolov defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Baník Sokolov attack 2.00 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
27%
level
21%
Baník Sokolov scores more
52%

Baník Sokolov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Baník Sokolov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Jindřichův Hradec 1–1 Baník Sokolov

Jindřichův Hradec and Baník Sokolov drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.