Jindřichův Hradec 1–1 Baník Ostrava U19

Jindřichův Hradec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Baník Ostrava U19

J. Palivec 7'

V. Skrkon 33'

4/9/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 22Stadion Na Chvalech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec49%

×Draw22%

Baník Ostrava U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jindřichův HradecExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.49

Jindřichův Hradec

1.98

Baník Ostrava U19

1.49

Jindřichův Hradec creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 77 away

2.36

creates per match

1.81

1.17

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec

2.36

Baník Ostrava U19

1.81

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec

1.17

Baník Ostrava U19

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw

71%

Jindřichův Hradec or Baník Ostrava U19

78%

Draw or Baník Ostrava U19

51%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

28%

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

86%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

59%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

31%

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals

77%

Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals

44%

Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

63%

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.36 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

49%

level

22%

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more

29%

Jindřichův Hradec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Palivec

33'

V. Skrkon

52'

G. Holub

67'

D. Hajek

67'

F. Bezdrob← F. Bezdrob

71'

P. Potmesil← P. Potmesil

71'

S. Adam← S. Adam

78'

S. Ninac← S. Ninac

82'

V. Nemec← V. Nemec

82'

M. Kalabus← M. Kalabus

85'

T. Kowalczyk

85'

M. Glamos← M. Glamos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff