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Jincheon vs Pyeongtaek Citizen — K4 League 2026

Jincheon
Jincheon
Preview
05:00
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
11/8/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 26
60%
Jincheon
model favours
60%22%18%

Jincheon sit 2, Pyeongtaek Citizen 13 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jincheon60%
×Draw22%
Pyeongtaek Citizen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jincheon
1.85
Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.90

Jincheon creates 106% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jincheon
1.88
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Jincheon
0.63
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.83

finishing

Jincheon+0.00on par
Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jincheon ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jincheon or draw
82%
Jincheon or Pyeongtaek Citizen
78%
Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen
40%

Winning margin

Jincheon wins by 2+
35%
Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jincheon 1+ goals
84%
Jincheon 2+ goals
55%
Jincheon 3+ goals
28%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
59%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
23%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jincheon (draw refunded)
77%
Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jincheon at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jincheon attack 1.88 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Jincheon defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jincheon scores more
60%
level
22%
Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
18%

Jincheon at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Jincheon
LDDDW
Citizen
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jincheon face Pyeongtaek Citizen (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Jincheon hosting Pyeongtaek Citizen. Match starts November 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.