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Jincheon vs Namyangju — K4 League 2026

Jincheon
Jincheon
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Namyangju
Namyangju
6/28/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jincheon58%
×Draw23%
Namyangju19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jincheon
1.77
Namyangju
0.90

Jincheon creates 97% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jincheon
1.88
Namyangju
1.17

allows per match

Jincheon
0.63
Namyangju
1.67

finishing

Jincheon+0.00on par
Namyangju+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jincheon ↓

Namyangju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jincheon or draw
81%
Jincheon or Namyangju
77%
Draw or Namyangju
42%

Winning margin

Jincheon wins by 2+
33%
Namyangju wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jincheon 1+ goals
83%
Jincheon 2+ goals
53%
Jincheon 3+ goals
26%
Namyangju 1+ goals
59%
Namyangju 2+ goals
23%
Namyangju 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jincheon (draw refunded)
75%
Namyangju (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jincheon at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Namyangju away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jincheon attack 1.88 + Namyangju defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Namyangju attack 1.17 + Jincheon defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jincheon scores more
58%
level
23%
Namyangju scores more
19%

Jincheon at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jincheon vs Namyangju

Jincheon and Namyangju drew 2-2 in K4 League on June 28, 2026.