Jincheon 1–0 Jecheon Citizen: Result & Stats

Jincheon

FT

1 – 0

Jecheon Citizen

5/2/2026

K4 League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jincheon50%

×Draw27%

Jecheon Citizen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JincheonExpected goals in this matchJecheon Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.87

Jincheon

1.44

Jecheon Citizen

0.87

Jincheon creates 66% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.88

creates per match

1.11

0.63

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Jincheon

1.88

Jecheon Citizen

1.11

allows per match

Jincheon

0.63

Jecheon Citizen

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jincheon+0.00on par

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jincheon ↓

Jecheon Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jincheon or draw

77%

Jincheon or Jecheon Citizen

73%

Draw or Jecheon Citizen

50%

Winning margin

Jincheon wins by 2+

25%

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jincheon 1+ goals

76%

Jincheon 2+ goals

42%

Jincheon 3+ goals

18%

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals

58%

Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals

22%

Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jincheon (draw refunded)

69%

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jincheon at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Jecheon Citizen away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jincheon attack 1.88 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.11 + Jincheon defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jincheon scores more

50%

level

27%

Jecheon Citizen scores more

23%

Jincheon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff