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Jincheon vs Geumsan Insam — K4 League 2026

Jincheon
Jincheon
FT
2 – 0
Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
3/14/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jincheon47%
×Draw24%
Geumsan Insam29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jincheon
1.66
Geumsan Insam
1.26

Jincheon creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jincheon
1.88
Geumsan Insam
1.89

allows per match

Jincheon
0.63
Geumsan Insam
1.44

finishing

Jincheon+0.00on par
Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jincheon ↓

Geumsan Insam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jincheon or draw
71%
Jincheon or Geumsan Insam
76%
Draw or Geumsan Insam
53%

Winning margin

Jincheon wins by 2+
24%
Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jincheon 1+ goals
81%
Jincheon 2+ goals
49%
Jincheon 3+ goals
23%
Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
72%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
36%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jincheon (draw refunded)
62%
Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jincheon at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jincheon attack 1.88 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.66

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Jincheon defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jincheon scores more
47%
level
24%
Geumsan Insam scores more
29%

Jincheon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Jincheon 2–0 Geumsan Insam

Jincheon beat Geumsan Insam 2-0 in K4 League on March 14, 2026.