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Jincheon vs Geoje Citizen — K4 League 2026

Jincheon
Jincheon
Preview
07:30
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
7/25/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 18
46%
Jincheon
model favours
46%26%29%
1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jincheon46%
×Draw26%
Geoje Citizen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jincheon
1.50
Geoje Citizen
1.13

Jincheon creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Jincheon
1.88
Geoje Citizen
1.63

allows per match

Jincheon
0.63
Geoje Citizen
1.13

finishing

Jincheon+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jincheon ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jincheon or draw
71%
Jincheon or Geoje Citizen
74%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
54%

Winning margin

Jincheon wins by 2+
23%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jincheon 1+ goals
78%
Jincheon 2+ goals
44%
Jincheon 3+ goals
19%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
68%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
31%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jincheon (draw refunded)
62%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jincheon at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jincheon attack 1.88 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Jincheon defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jincheon scores more
46%
level
26%
Geoje Citizen scores more
29%

Jincheon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Jincheon
LDDDW
Citizen
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jincheon face Geoje Citizen (K4 League)

K4 League returns with Jincheon hosting Geoje Citizen. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.