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Geoje Citizen vs Jincheon — K4 League 2026

Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
FT
0 – 2
Jincheon
Jincheon
4/5/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geoje Citizen36%
×Draw22%
Jincheon42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geoje Citizen
1.77
Jincheon
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Geoje Citizen
2.29
Jincheon
2.00

allows per match

Geoje Citizen
1.86
Jincheon
1.25

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par
Jincheon+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Jincheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw
58%
Geoje Citizen or Jincheon
78%
Draw or Jincheon
64%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
18%
Jincheon wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
83%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
53%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
26%
Jincheon 1+ goals
85%
Jincheon 2+ goals
57%
Jincheon 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
46%
Jincheon (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Jincheon away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.29 + Jincheon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jincheon attack 2.00 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more
36%
level
22%
Jincheon scores more
42%

Jincheon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jincheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Geoje Citizen 0–2 Jincheon

Jincheon beat Geoje Citizen 2-0 in K4 League on April 5, 2026.