Jinan Xingzhou 0–0 Suzhou Dongwu: Result & Stats

Jinan Xingzhou

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Suzhou Dongwu

10/14/2023

League One · Round 26Shandong Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou43%

×Draw28%

Suzhou Dongwu29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jinan XingzhouExpected goals in this matchSuzhou Dongwu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

Jinan Xingzhou

1.29

Suzhou Dongwu

1.02

Jinan Xingzhou creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

1.20

creates per match

1.10

0.93

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou

1.20

Suzhou Dongwu

1.10

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou

0.93

Suzhou Dongwu

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw

71%

Jinan Xingzhou or Suzhou Dongwu

72%

Draw or Suzhou Dongwu

57%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

19%

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

72%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

37%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

14%

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals

64%

Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals

27%

Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

59%

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.20 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.10 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

43%

level

28%

Suzhou Dongwu scores more

29%

Jinan Xingzhou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Liang Weipeng

46'

Yao Ben← Liu Hao

47'

H. Dong

59'

D. Gao

59'

Pedro Delgado← Dong Honglin

60'

Qi Tianyu

65'

Bai Jiajun← Wu Junhao

65'

Lu Yongtao← Qi Tianyu

78'

Tan Tiancheng← Yi Xianlong

86'

Shi Yucheng← Zhang Lingfeng

Jinan

Suzhou

21

Xinyu

2

Xijie

14

Jiajun

27

▼

Hao

11

Jingzhe

10

▼

28

9

18

8

6

▼

Honglin

1

Qianyu

19

Chongchon

24

▼

17

13

12

33

37

▼

Xianlong

29

▼

Junhao

20

Rehmitull

18

Tambe

Manager: Tang Jing

65'▲Bai Jiajun←▼Wu Junhao

65'▲Lu Yongtao←▼Qi Tianyu

78'▲Tan Tiancheng←▼Yi Xianlong

Jinan Xingzhou substitutes

23Jiajun9Yongtao31Tiancheng28Weihong16Xiaofei26Jianfeng4Boyang30Hao21Yi32Hanfei15Tong

Manager: Lu Bofei

46'▲Yao Ben←▼Liu Hao

59'▲Pedro Delgado←▼Dong Honglin

86'▲Shi Yucheng←▼Zhang Lingfeng

Suzhou Dongwu substitutes

3Ben44Delgado42Yucheng5Mingfei30Yuan33Bo22Jingbo23Jinyi7Lei4Weikang15Haoyue20Yang