Jinan Xingzhou 2–1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Jinan Xingzhou

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

9/13/2023

League One · Round 23Zaozhuang Culture & Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou39%

×Draw27%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jinan XingzhouExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou Evergrande FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Jinan Xingzhou

1.33

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.20

creates per match

1.57

0.93

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou

1.20

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.57

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou

0.93

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw

65%

Jinan Xingzhou or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

73%

Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

61%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

17%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

74%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

38%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

15%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

71%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

36%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

53%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.20 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

39%

level

27%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

35%

Jinan Xingzhou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff