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Jimma Aba Jifar vs Sebeta Kenema — Premier League 2019

Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
FT
1 – 2
Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
4/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar31%
×Draw29%
Sebeta Kenema40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.04
Sebeta Kenema
1.22

Sebeta Kenema creates 17% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.78
Sebeta Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.44
Sebeta Kenema
1.31

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par
Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Sebeta Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw
60%
Jimma Aba Jifar or Sebeta Kenema
71%
Draw or Sebeta Kenema
69%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
12%
Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
65%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
28%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
9%
Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
70%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
34%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
44%
Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Sebeta Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sebeta Kenema attack 1.00 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
31%
level
29%
Sebeta Kenema scores more
40%

Sebeta Kenema at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sebeta Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jimma Aba Jifar vs Sebeta Kenema

Sebeta Kenema beat Jimma Aba Jifar 2-1 in Premier League on April 16, 2021.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.