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Jimma Aba Jifar vs Mekelle Kenema — Premier League 2019

Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
FT
1 – 0
Mekelle Kenema
Mekelle Kenema
2/2/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Jimma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jimma Aba Jifar29%
×Draw32%
Mekelle Kenema39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.84
Mekelle Kenema
1.03

Mekelle Kenema creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 43 away

creates per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
0.78
Mekelle Kenema
0.63

allows per match

Jimma Aba Jifar
1.44
Mekelle Kenema
0.91

finishing

Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par
Mekelle Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jimma Aba Jifar ↓

Mekelle Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Jimma Aba Jifar or draw
61%
Jimma Aba Jifar or Mekelle Kenema
68%
Draw or Mekelle Kenema
71%

Winning margin

Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
10%
Mekelle Kenema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
57%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
21%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
5%
Mekelle Kenema 1+ goals
64%
Mekelle Kenema 2+ goals
28%
Mekelle Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
43%
Mekelle Kenema (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jimma Aba Jifar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Mekelle Kenema away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.78 + Mekelle Kenema defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.84

Mekelle Kenema attack 0.63 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
29%
level
32%
Mekelle Kenema scores more
39%

Mekelle Kenema at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mekelle Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Jimma Aba Jifar 1–0 Mekelle Kenema

Jimma Aba Jifar beat Mekelle Kenema 1-0 in Premier League on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Jimma Stadium in Jimma.