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Tarup-Paarup vs Jammerbugt — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
FT
0 – 4
Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
9/18/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 7Home Tarup Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tarup-Paarup25%
×Draw23%
Jammerbugt52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarup-Paarup
1.21
Jammerbugt
1.84

Jammerbugt creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tarup-Paarup
0.91
Jammerbugt
1.69

allows per match

Tarup-Paarup
2.00
Jammerbugt
1.50

finishing

Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par
Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarup-Paarup ↓

Jammerbugt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tarup-Paarup or draw
48%
Tarup-Paarup or Jammerbugt
77%
Draw or Jammerbugt
75%

Winning margin

Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
10%
Jammerbugt wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
70%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
34%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
12%
Jammerbugt 1+ goals
84%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
55%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
33%
Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarup-Paarup at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Jammerbugt away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.91 + Jammerbugt defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jammerbugt attack 1.69 + Tarup-Paarup defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tarup-Paarup scores more
25%
level
23%
Jammerbugt scores more
52%

Jammerbugt at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jammerbugt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarup-Paarup vs Jammerbugt

Jammerbugt beat Tarup-Paarup 4-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 18, 2018.

The match was played at Home Tarup Park in Odense.