Jammerbugt 1–0 Kjellerup: Result & Stats

Jammerbugt

FT

1 – 0

Kjellerup

9/15/2018

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 8Jetsmark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jammerbugt69%

×Draw19%

Kjellerup12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JammerbugtExpected goals in this matchKjellerup

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.73

Jammerbugt

2.12

Kjellerup

0.73

Jammerbugt creates 190% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

1.69

creates per match

0.82

0.65

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Jammerbugt

1.69

Kjellerup

0.82

allows per match

Jammerbugt

0.65

Kjellerup

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Kjellerup+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jammerbugt ↓

Kjellerup →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jammerbugt or draw

88%

Jammerbugt or Kjellerup

81%

Draw or Kjellerup

31%

Winning margin

Jammerbugt wins by 2+

45%

Kjellerup wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jammerbugt 1+ goals

88%

Jammerbugt 2+ goals

62%

Jammerbugt 3+ goals

35%

Kjellerup 1+ goals

52%

Kjellerup 2+ goals

17%

Kjellerup 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Jammerbugt (draw refunded)

86%

Kjellerup (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jammerbugt at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.65 · 26 matches

Kjellerup away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jammerbugt attack 1.69 + Kjellerup defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kjellerup attack 0.82 + Jammerbugt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Jammerbugt scores more

69%

level

19%

Kjellerup scores more

12%

Jammerbugt at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Jammerbugt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff