Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jigawa Golden Stars vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
FT
2 – 1
Kwara United
Kwara United
3/8/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 23Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Jigawa Golden Stars55%
×Draw28%
Kwara United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.35
Kwara United
0.60

Jigawa Golden Stars creates 125% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 128 away

creates per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.16
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
0.63
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jigawa Golden Stars ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jigawa Golden Stars or draw
83%
Jigawa Golden Stars or Kwara United
72%
Draw or Kwara United
45%

Winning margin

Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
27%
Kwara United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
74%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
39%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
15%
Kwara United 1+ goals
45%
Kwara United 2+ goals
12%
Kwara United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
77%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jigawa Golden Stars at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 1.16 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
55%
level
28%
Kwara United scores more
17%

Jigawa Golden Stars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jigawa Golden Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jigawa Golden Stars vs Kwara United

Jigawa Golden Stars beat Kwara United 2-1 in NPFL on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sani Abacha Stadium in Kano.