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Jigawa Golden Stars vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
CANC
00:00
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
3/25/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 27Sani Abacha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Jigawa Golden Stars47%
×Draw31%
Enugu Rangers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.15
Enugu Rangers
0.67

Jigawa Golden Stars creates 72% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 130 away

creates per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.16
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
0.63
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jigawa Golden Stars ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Jigawa Golden Stars or draw
79%
Jigawa Golden Stars or Enugu Rangers
69%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
53%

Winning margin

Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
20%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
68%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
32%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
11%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
49%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
15%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
69%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jigawa Golden Stars at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 1.16 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
47%
level
31%
Enugu Rangers scores more
21%

Jigawa Golden Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jigawa Golden Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jigawa Golden Stars host Enugu Rangers

March 25, 2020: Jigawa Golden Stars take on Enugu Rangers in NPFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jigawa Golden Stars host Enugu Rangers at Sani Abacha Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.