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Jiangxi Liansheng vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
7/27/2022League OneLeague One · Round 11Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng45%
×Draw25%
Xinjiang Tianshan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.57
Xinjiang Tianshan
1.26

Jiangxi Liansheng creates 25% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 72 away

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
0.99
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.89
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw
69%
Jiangxi Liansheng or Xinjiang Tianshan
75%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
55%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
22%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
79%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
46%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
21%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
72%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
36%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
59%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.99 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
45%
level
25%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
31%

Jiangxi Liansheng at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jiangxi Liansheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jiangxi Liansheng vs Xinjiang Tianshan

Jiangxi Liansheng beat Xinjiang Tianshan 1-0 in League One on July 27, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3 in Tangshan.