Jiangxi Liansheng 0–1 Qingdao Red Lions

Jiangxi Liansheng

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Qingdao Red Lions

Pi Ziyang 45'

4/19/2025

FA Cup · 2nd RoundRuichang Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng18%

×Draw23%

Qingdao Red Lions58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangxi LianshengExpected goals in this matchQingdao Red Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.75

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.86

Qingdao Red Lions

1.75

Qingdao Red Lions creates 103% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

0.89

creates per match

1.17

2.33

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.89

Qingdao Red Lions

1.17

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng

2.33

Qingdao Red Lions

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →

0–07%

0–113%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw

42%

Jiangxi Liansheng or Qingdao Red Lions

77%

Draw or Qingdao Red Lions

82%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

58%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

21%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

83%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

52%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

24%

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.89 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Qingdao Red Lions attack 1.17 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

18%

level

23%

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

58%

Qingdao Red Lions at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Pi Ziyang

Jiangxi

Qingdao

⚽

Manager: Songtao Yue

Jiangxi Liansheng substitutes

JiahaoJialiZhihengJingxiangJianwenYunhuaYuchenYiYunlongXiboZhaojiJun

Manager: Francisco Miguel Meireles Von-Doellinger Castro

Qingdao Red Lions substitutes

XipengLiangJunhaoJianyiPujinKaidiXiaoqiLihaoMuzeZheYuanYi

Match Recap: Jiangxi Liansheng vs Qingdao Red Lions

Qingdao Red Lions beat Jiangxi Liansheng 1-0 in FA Cup on April 19, 2025.

Goals: Pi Ziyang (45').

The match was played at Ruichang Sports Park Stadium in Jiujiang.

Jiangxi Liansheng vs Qingdao Red Lions — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jiangxi Liansheng vs Qingdao Red Lions