Jiangxi Liansheng 2–2 Jinan Xingzhou

Jiangxi Liansheng

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Jinan Xingzhou

9/2/2023

League One · Round 21Ruichang Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng27%

×Draw26%

Jinan Xingzhou47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangxi LianshengExpected goals in this matchJinan Xingzhou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.48

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.06

Jinan Xingzhou

1.48

Jinan Xingzhou creates 40% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 15 away

0.99

creates per match

1.07

1.89

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.99

Jinan Xingzhou

1.07

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.89

Jinan Xingzhou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw

53%

Jiangxi Liansheng or Jinan Xingzhou

74%

Draw or Jinan Xingzhou

73%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

10%

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

65%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

29%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

9%

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

77%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

43%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

37%

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.99 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

27%

level

26%

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

47%

Jinan Xingzhou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff