Jiangxi Liansheng 0–2 Hebei Kungfu: Result & Stats

Jiangxi Liansheng

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hebei Kungfu

6/18/2023

League One · Round 10Ruichang Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng25%

×Draw26%

Hebei Kungfu49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangxi LianshengExpected goals in this matchHebei Kungfu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.51

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.01

Hebei Kungfu

1.51

Hebei Kungfu creates 50% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 69 away

0.99

creates per match

1.14

1.89

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.99

Hebei Kungfu

1.14

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.89

Hebei Kungfu

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Hebei Kungfu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw

51%

Jiangxi Liansheng or Hebei Kungfu

74%

Draw or Hebei Kungfu

75%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

9%

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

64%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

27%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

8%

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals

78%

Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals

44%

Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

34%

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Hebei Kungfu away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.03 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.99 + Hebei Kungfu defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.14 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

25%

level

26%

Hebei Kungfu scores more

49%

Hebei Kungfu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff