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Jiangxi Liansheng vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — League One 2018

Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
6/2/2024League OneLeague One · Round 12Ruichang Sports Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng27%
×Draw24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.23
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.73

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
0.99
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.89
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw
51%
Jiangxi Liansheng or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
76%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
73%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
11%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
71%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
35%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
13%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
82%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
52%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
36%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.99 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
27%
level
24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
49%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Jiangxi Liansheng 2–5 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Jiangxi Liansheng 5-2 in League One on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Ruichang Sports Park Stadium in Jiujiang.