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Jiangsu Suning vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
12/1/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Nanjing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jiangsu Suning55%
×Draw22%
Tianjin Songjiang23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangsu Suning
1.90
Tianjin Songjiang
1.14

Jiangsu Suning creates 67% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning
1.90
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning
0.88
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw
77%
Jiangsu Suning or Tianjin Songjiang
78%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
45%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
32%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
85%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
56%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
29%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
68%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
32%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
71%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.90 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.90

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Jiangsu Suning defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more
55%
level
22%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
23%

Jiangsu Suning at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Jiangsu Suning 2–0 Tianjin Songjiang

Jiangsu Suning beat Tianjin Songjiang 2-0 in Super League on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Nanjing Olympic Sports Center in Nanjing.