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Jiangsu Suning vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2018

Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
4/22/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Nanjing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Jiangsu Suning47%
×Draw25%
Shanghai Shenhua28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangsu Suning
1.56
Shanghai Shenhua
1.16

Jiangsu Suning creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 119 away

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning
1.90
Shanghai Shenhua
1.43

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning
0.88
Shanghai Shenhua
1.23

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw
72%
Jiangsu Suning or Shanghai Shenhua
75%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
53%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
24%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
79%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
46%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
21%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
69%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
32%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
62%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.90 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Jiangsu Suning defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more
47%
level
25%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
28%

Jiangsu Suning at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Jiangsu Suning 5–1 Shanghai Shenhua

Jiangsu Suning beat Shanghai Shenhua 5-1 in Super League on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Nanjing Olympic Sports Center in Nanjing.