Jiangsu Suning 7–2 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Jiangsu Suning

7 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Meizhou Kejia

11/27/2020

FA Cup · 2nd RoundSuzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jiangsu Suning62%

×Draw19%

Meizhou Kejia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangsu SuningExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.29

Jiangsu Suning

2.45

Meizhou Kejia

1.29

Jiangsu Suning creates 90% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.33

creates per match

1.57

1.00

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning

2.33

Meizhou Kejia

1.57

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning

1.00

Meizhou Kejia

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw

81%

Jiangsu Suning or Meizhou Kejia

81%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

38%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

41%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

91%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

70%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

44%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

72%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

37%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

77%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 2.33 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.45

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.57 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more

62%

level

19%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

19%

Jiangsu Suning at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff