Jia Hua 1–0 Universidade de Macau: Result & Stats

Jia Hua

FT

1 – 0

Universidade de Macau

7/28/2024

Primeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 9Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jia Hua63%

×Draw18%

Universidade de Macau19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jia HuaExpected goals in this matchUniversidade de Macau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.35

Jia Hua

2.57

Universidade de Macau

1.35

Jia Hua creates 90% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

2.52

creates per match

1.54

1.16

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Jia Hua

2.52

Universidade de Macau

1.54

allows per match

Jia Hua

1.16

Universidade de Macau

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par

Universidade de Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Universidade de Macau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw

81%

Jia Hua or Universidade de Macau

82%

Draw or Universidade de Macau

37%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+

42%

Universidade de Macau wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals

92%

Jia Hua 2+ goals

72%

Jia Hua 3+ goals

47%

Universidade de Macau 1+ goals

74%

Universidade de Macau 2+ goals

39%

Universidade de Macau 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)

77%

Universidade de Macau (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Universidade de Macau away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Universidade de Macau defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.57

Universidade de Macau attack 1.54 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jia Hua scores more

63%

level

18%

Universidade de Macau scores more

19%

Jia Hua at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff