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Jia Hua vs Hang Sai — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
FT
1 – 2
Hang Sai
Hang Sai
4/14/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 7Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jia Hua67%
×Draw16%
Hang Sai17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
3.01
Hang Sai
1.50

Jia Hua creates 101% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 32 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
Hang Sai
1.84

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
Hang Sai
3.50

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
Hang Sai+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Hang Sai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
83%
Jia Hua or Hang Sai
84%
Draw or Hang Sai
33%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
47%
Hang Sai wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
95%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
80%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
56%
Hang Sai 1+ goals
78%
Hang Sai 2+ goals
44%
Hang Sai 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
80%
Hang Sai (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Hang Sai away — creates 1.84, concedes 3.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Hang Sai defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.01

Hang Sai attack 1.84 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Jia Hua scores more
67%
level
16%
Hang Sai scores more
17%

Jia Hua at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Jia Hua 1–2 Hang Sai

Hang Sai beat Jia Hua 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.