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Hang Sai vs Jia Hua — Primeira Divisão 2026

Hang Sai
Hang Sai
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jia Hua
Jia Hua
4/26/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 7Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hang Sai24%
×Draw17%
Jia Hua58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hang Sai
1.98
Jia Hua
3.04

Jia Hua creates 54% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 25 away

creates per match

Hang Sai
2.35
Jia Hua
3.32

allows per match

Hang Sai
2.76
Jia Hua
1.60

finishing

Hang Sai+0.00on par
Jia Hua+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Sai ↓

Jia Hua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Hang Sai or draw
42%
Hang Sai or Jia Hua
83%
Draw or Jia Hua
76%

Winning margin

Hang Sai wins by 2+
12%
Jia Hua wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Hang Sai 1+ goals
86%
Hang Sai 2+ goals
59%
Hang Sai 3+ goals
31%
Jia Hua 1+ goals
95%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
80%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Hang Sai (draw refunded)
30%
Jia Hua (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Sai at home — creates 2.35, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

Jia Hua away — creates 3.32, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Sai attack 2.35 + Jia Hua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jia Hua attack 3.32 + Hang Sai defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hang Sai scores more
24%
level
17%
Jia Hua scores more
58%

Jia Hua at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Hang Sai 1–1 Jia Hua

Hang Sai and Jia Hua drew 1-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.