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Jia Hua vs CPK — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
ABD
13:00
CPK
CPK
7/17/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jia Hua19%
×Draw16%
CPK65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
1.64
CPK
3.06

CPK creates 87% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
CPK
4.97

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
CPK
0.76

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

CPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
35%
Jia Hua or CPK
84%
Draw or CPK
81%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
8%
CPK wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
81%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
49%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
23%
CPK 1+ goals
95%
CPK 2+ goals
80%
CPK 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
22%
CPK (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.64

CPK attack 4.97 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jia Hua scores more
19%
level
16%
CPK scores more
65%

CPK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jia Hua host CPK

July 17, 2026: Jia Hua take on CPK in Primeira Divisão. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.