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Jia Hua vs Chiba — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chiba
Chiba
7/11/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jia Hua46%
×Draw21%
Chiba33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
2.17
Chiba
1.83

Jia Hua creates 19% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
Chiba
2.50

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
Chiba
1.81

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
67%
Jia Hua or Chiba
79%
Draw or Chiba
54%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
27%
Chiba wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
89%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
64%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
36%
Chiba 1+ goals
84%
Chiba 2+ goals
54%
Chiba 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
58%
Chiba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Chiba away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Chiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.17

Chiba attack 2.50 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jia Hua scores more
46%
level
21%
Chiba scores more
33%

Jia Hua at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jia Hua vs Chiba

Jia Hua beat Chiba 3-0 in Primeira Divisão on July 11, 2026.