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JFK Ventspils vs Beitar — 1. Liga 2026

JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Beitar
Beitar
7/22/20231. Liga1. Liga · Round 12Olimpiskā centra Ventspils Stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

JFK Ventspils53%
×Draw22%
Beitar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JFK Ventspils
2.02
Beitar
1.35

JFK Ventspils creates 50% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 13 away

creates per match

JFK Ventspils
1.18
Beitar
1.62

allows per match

JFK Ventspils
1.09
Beitar
2.85

finishing

JFK Ventspils+0.00on par
Beitar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JFK Ventspils ↓

Beitar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

JFK Ventspils or draw
74%
JFK Ventspils or Beitar
78%
Draw or Beitar
47%

Winning margin

JFK Ventspils wins by 2+
31%
Beitar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

JFK Ventspils 1+ goals
87%
JFK Ventspils 2+ goals
60%
JFK Ventspils 3+ goals
33%
Beitar 1+ goals
74%
Beitar 2+ goals
39%
Beitar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

JFK Ventspils (draw refunded)
67%
Beitar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JFK Ventspils at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Beitar away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JFK Ventspils attack 1.18 + Beitar defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.02

Beitar attack 1.62 + JFK Ventspils defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

JFK Ventspils scores more
53%
level
22%
Beitar scores more
26%

JFK Ventspils at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "JFK Ventspils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JFK Ventspils vs Beitar

Beitar beat JFK Ventspils 1-0 in 1. Liga on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Olimpiskā centra Ventspils Stadionā in Ventspils.