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JFC Jelgava vs Mārupe — Cup 2020

JFC Jelgava
JFC Jelgava
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mārupe
Mārupeadvanced
K. Knope 45'
M. Dobrajs 77'
A. Minasyan 72'
5/30/2026CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

JFC Jelgava18%
×Draw15%
Mārupe68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JFC Jelgava
1.82
Mārupe
3.51

Mārupe creates 93% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

JFC Jelgava
3.20
Mārupe
5.43

allows per match

JFC Jelgava
1.60
Mārupe
0.43

finishing

JFC Jelgava+0.00on par
Mārupe+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JFC Jelgava ↓

Mārupe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

JFC Jelgava or draw
32%
JFC Jelgava or Mārupe
85%
Draw or Mārupe
82%

Winning margin

JFC Jelgava wins by 2+
8%
Mārupe wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

JFC Jelgava 1+ goals
84%
JFC Jelgava 2+ goals
54%
JFC Jelgava 3+ goals
27%
Mārupe 1+ goals
97%
Mārupe 2+ goals
86%
Mārupe 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

JFC Jelgava (draw refunded)
21%
Mārupe (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JFC Jelgava at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Mārupe away — creates 5.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JFC Jelgava attack 3.20 + Mārupe defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.82

Mārupe attack 5.43 + JFC Jelgava defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 3.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

JFC Jelgava scores more
18%
level
15%
Mārupe scores more
68%

Mārupe at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mārupe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
K. Knope
72'
A. Minasyan
77'
M. Dobrajs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: JFC Jelgava 1–2 Mārupe

Mārupe beat JFC Jelgava 2-1 in Cup on May 30, 2026.

Goals: K. Knope (45'), A. Minasyan (72'), M. Dobrajs (77').