JFC Jelgava 3–4 LBF FK Daugava: Result & Stats

JFC Jelgava

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

LBF FK Daugava

5/27/2023

Cup · 1st RoundZemgales Olimpiskā centra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JFC Jelgava35%

×Draw17%

LBF FK Daugava48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JFC JelgavaExpected goals in this matchLBF FK Daugava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

3.63

JFC Jelgava

3.10

LBF FK Daugava

3.63

LBF FK Daugava creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.20

creates per match

5.67

1.60

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

JFC Jelgava

3.20

LBF FK Daugava

5.67

allows per match

JFC Jelgava

1.60

LBF FK Daugava

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JFC Jelgava+0.00on par

LBF FK Daugava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over96
Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes93
No7

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JFC Jelgava ↓

LBF FK Daugava →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–00%

1–12%

1–23%

1–33%

1–43%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–35%

3–45%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–34%

4–44%

Most likely 2–3 (5%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

96%4%3.5

89%11%4.5

78%22%

Double chance

JFC Jelgava or draw

52%

JFC Jelgava or LBF FK Daugava

83%

Draw or LBF FK Daugava

65%

Winning margin

JFC Jelgava wins by 2+

20%

LBF FK Daugava wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

JFC Jelgava 1+ goals

95%

JFC Jelgava 2+ goals

81%

JFC Jelgava 3+ goals

58%

LBF FK Daugava 1+ goals

97%

LBF FK Daugava 2+ goals

87%

LBF FK Daugava 3+ goals

68%

Draw no bet

JFC Jelgava (draw refunded)

42%

LBF FK Daugava (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

91%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

JFC Jelgava at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

LBF FK Daugava away — creates 5.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

JFC Jelgava attack 3.20 + LBF FK Daugava defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

LBF FK Daugava attack 5.67 + JFC Jelgava defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 3.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

JFC Jelgava scores more

35%

level

17%

LBF FK Daugava scores more

48%

LBF FK Daugava at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "LBF FK Daugava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff