JFC Jelgava 2–0 Cēsis: Result & Stats | Cup

JFC Jelgava

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cēsis

5/7/2022

Cup · Preliminary RoundZemgales Olimpiskā centra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

JFC Jelgava80%

×Draw11%

Cēsis9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JFC JelgavaExpected goals in this matchCēsis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.69

1.22

JFC Jelgava

3.69

Cēsis

1.22

JFC Jelgava creates 202% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

3.20

creates per match

0.83

1.60

allows per match

4.17

creates per match

JFC Jelgava

3.20

Cēsis

0.83

allows per match

JFC Jelgava

1.60

Cēsis

4.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JFC Jelgava+0.00on par

Cēsis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JFC Jelgava ↓

Cēsis →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

JFC Jelgava or draw

91%

JFC Jelgava or Cēsis

89%

Draw or Cēsis

20%

Winning margin

JFC Jelgava wins by 2+

63%

Cēsis wins by 2+

Team goals

JFC Jelgava 1+ goals

97%

JFC Jelgava 2+ goals

87%

JFC Jelgava 3+ goals

69%

Cēsis 1+ goals

70%

Cēsis 2+ goals

34%

Cēsis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

JFC Jelgava (draw refunded)

90%

Cēsis (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

JFC Jelgava at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Cēsis away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

JFC Jelgava attack 3.20 + Cēsis defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.69

Cēsis attack 0.83 + JFC Jelgava defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

JFC Jelgava scores more

80%

level

11%

Cēsis scores more

JFC Jelgava at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "JFC Jelgava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff